Estimates of Gross Domestic Productfor the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2011-12
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2011-12, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.
2. The estimates of Quarterly GDP for the years 2009-10 and 2010-11 have been revised on account of using the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 2004-05 released by CSO on 10th June 2011. The revisions are mainly in mining, manufacturing, electricity and trade, hotels and restaurant sectors in GDP. Estimates of components of expenditure side of GDP have also been revised, accordingly.
3. The details of the estimates are presented below.
I ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
(a) At constant (2004-05) prices
4. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q2 of 2011-12 is estimated at Rs. 12,27,254 crore as against Rs. 11,48,472 crore in Q2 of 2010-11, showing a growth rate of 6.9 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
5. The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11 are, ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ at 9.8 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 9.9 per cent and ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 10.5 per cent. The estimated growth rates in other economic activities in this quarter are 3.2 per cent in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’, 2.7 per cent in ‘manufacturing’ and 4.3 per cent in ‘construction’ and 6.6 per cent in ‘community, social and personal services’. The growth of ‘mining and quarrying’ sector declined to (- )2.9 per cent during this period. The decrease in the growth of GDP in second quarter of 2011-12 is largely due to the negative growth in ‘mining and quarrying’ and steep fall in the growth of manufacturing sector, as compared to their levels of growth in Q2 of 2010-11.
6. According to the First Advance Estimates of Production of
Foodgrains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for 2011-12 released by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation on 16.9.2011, the production of rice and oilseeds is expected to grow by 8.0% and 0.2% respectively whereas the production of coarse cereals and pulses is expected to decline by (-) 6.2% and (-) 9.7% respectively, during the Kharif season of 2011-12 as compared to the production of these crops in the Kharif season of 2010-11. Apart from production of kharif crops, the growth in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ estimates of GDP in Q2 are based on the anticipated production of fruits and vegetables, other crops, livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which show growth in the range of 3-4%.
7. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 2.7 per cent, 3.1 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12, as compared to the growth rates of 6.3 per cent, 7.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent in these industries in Q2 of 2010-11.
8. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 6.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12.
9. Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rates of 3.5 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12. In the transport and communication sectors, the sales of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, passenger handled by the civil aviation and the total stock of telephone connections (including WLL and cellular) registered growth rates of 21.3 per cent, 0.9 per cent, 17.2 per cent and 36.4 percent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11. The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 21.1 per cent and 23.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11.
(b) At current prices
10. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2011-12, is estimated at Rs. 19,55,880 crore, as against Rs. 16,85,793 crore in Q2, 2010-11, showing an increase of 16.0 per cent.
11. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 9.0 per cent, 7.7 per cent, (-)0.2 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2011-12, over Q2 of 2010-11. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 9.2 per cent during Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11.
II ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP
12. The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
13. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 12,43,681 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 10,71,221 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 7,85,463 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 7,41,624 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 59.6 per cent and 59.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.4 per cent and 59.9 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2010-11.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
14. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 2,22,356 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 1,96,498 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 1,40,883 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 1,35,400 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 10.7 per cent each as against the corresponding rates of 10.9 per cent each in Q2 of 2010-11.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
15. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 5,84,236 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 5,45,660 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 4,02,994 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 4,05,567 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 28.0 per cent and 30.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.3 per cent and 32.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2010-11.
The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2011-12, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices, alongwith the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.
2. The estimates of Quarterly GDP for the years 2009-10 and 2010-11 have been revised on account of using the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 2004-05 released by CSO on 10th June 2011. The revisions are mainly in mining, manufacturing, electricity and trade, hotels and restaurant sectors in GDP. Estimates of components of expenditure side of GDP have also been revised, accordingly.
3. The details of the estimates are presented below.
I ESTIMATES OF GDP BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
(a) At constant (2004-05) prices
4. Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices for Q2 of 2011-12 is estimated at Rs. 12,27,254 crore as against Rs. 11,48,472 crore in Q2 of 2010-11, showing a growth rate of 6.9 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.
5. The economic activities which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11 are, ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ at 9.8 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 9.9 per cent and ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 10.5 per cent. The estimated growth rates in other economic activities in this quarter are 3.2 per cent in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’, 2.7 per cent in ‘manufacturing’ and 4.3 per cent in ‘construction’ and 6.6 per cent in ‘community, social and personal services’. The growth of ‘mining and quarrying’ sector declined to (- )2.9 per cent during this period. The decrease in the growth of GDP in second quarter of 2011-12 is largely due to the negative growth in ‘mining and quarrying’ and steep fall in the growth of manufacturing sector, as compared to their levels of growth in Q2 of 2010-11.
6. According to the First Advance Estimates of Production of
Foodgrains, Oilseeds and other Commercial Crops for 2011-12 released by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation on 16.9.2011, the production of rice and oilseeds is expected to grow by 8.0% and 0.2% respectively whereas the production of coarse cereals and pulses is expected to decline by (-) 6.2% and (-) 9.7% respectively, during the Kharif season of 2011-12 as compared to the production of these crops in the Kharif season of 2010-11. Apart from production of kharif crops, the growth in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ estimates of GDP in Q2 are based on the anticipated production of fruits and vegetables, other crops, livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which show growth in the range of 3-4%.
7. According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity, registered growth rates of (-) 2.7 per cent, 3.1 per cent and 10.5 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12, as compared to the growth rates of 6.3 per cent, 7.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent in these industries in Q2 of 2010-11.
8. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 6.4 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12.
9. Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rates of 3.5 per cent and 7.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12. In the transport and communication sectors, the sales of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, passenger handled by the civil aviation and the total stock of telephone connections (including WLL and cellular) registered growth rates of 21.3 per cent, 0.9 per cent, 17.2 per cent and 36.4 percent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11. The other key indicators, namely, aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 21.1 per cent and 23.1 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11.
(b) At current prices
10. GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2011-12, is estimated at Rs. 19,55,880 crore, as against Rs. 16,85,793 crore in Q2, 2010-11, showing an increase of 16.0 per cent.
11. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 9.0 per cent, 7.7 per cent, (-)0.2 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2011-12, over Q2 of 2010-11. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 9.2 per cent during Q2 of 2011-12 over Q2 of 2010-11.
II ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP
12. The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.
Private Final Consumption Expenditure
13. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 12,43,681 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 10,71,221 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-2005) prices, the PFCE is estimated at Rs. 7,85,463 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 7,41,624 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 59.6 per cent and 59.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 59.4 per cent and 59.9 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2010-11.
Government Final Consumption Expenditure
14. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 2,22,356 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 1,96,498 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCE is estimated at Rs. 1,40,883 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 1,35,400 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 10.7 per cent each as against the corresponding rates of 10.9 per cent each in Q2 of 2010-11.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation
15. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at Rs. 5,84,236 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 5,45,660 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the GFCF is estimated at Rs. 4,02,994 crore in Q2 of 2011-12 as against Rs. 4,05,567 crore in Q2 of 2010-11. In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2004-05) prices during Q2 of 2011-12 are estimated at 28.0 per cent and 30.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.3 per cent and 32.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2010-11.
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